Many a Breakthrough Lies in Store

By Burt Rutan in Aviation Week and Space Technology magazine Jan 1, 2000

"However, if we could all fly in personal aircraft at 300 knots directly to and from the thousands of small airports in the U.S., we would reduce the average travel time door-to-door for domestic trips by two-thirds. We haven’t been able to do this simply because we did not have the technology."

"We will see, by 2010, a fully integrated revolutionary aircraft. It will have a cockpit without an instrument panel and with a pilot interface so simple and intuitive that a person with 2 hours of training can safely navigate and conduct his own collision avoidance. It will come equipped with synthetic vision, so clouds or darkness do not block the pilot’s view of outside features"

"The aircraft will have collision avoidance via 3D audio alert and visual target icons overlaying actual traffic. If a pilot fails to heed a threat, the autopilot will intervene to avert the collision"

"With all these enabling technologies demonstrated, individually operated personal aircraft could begin to substantially replace out inconvenient bus-like airliners. By 2025, we will mass produce these aircraft, discard out conventional ATC systems and build large numbers of new small airports."

"By 2040, the transition will be complete, with only a minority of people using airlines for domestic air travel."